According to the ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the World of Work 3rd Edition, the fall in working hours during this quarter of 2020 (2nd quarter) is expected to be significantly worse than previously estimated.
Nearly half of global workforce is at risk of losing livelihoods due to growing number of job losses amid the Covid-19 pandemic, that is 1.6 billion workers in the informal economy warned the International Labour Organization (ILO).
A 10.5 per cent deterioration is now expected, equivalent to 305 million full-time jobs from pre-crisis levels (Q4 2019) as a result of the extension of lockdown measures. This is compared to the previous estimate of 6.7 per cent fall equivalent to 195 million full-time workers.
The situation has worsened for all major regions with estimates suggesting a 12.4 per cent loss of working hours in Q2 for the Americas (compared to pre-crisis levels) and 11.8 per cent for Europe and Central Asia. The estimates for the rest of the regional groups follow closely and are all above 9.5 per cent.
Informal economy impact
As a result of the economic crisis created by the pandemic, almost 1.6 billion informal economy workers (representing the most vulnerable in the labour market), out of a worldwide total of two billion and a global workforce of 3.3 billion, have suffered a reduction to their capacity to earn a living. This is due to lockdown measures and/or because they work in the hardest-hit sectors.
The first month of the crisis is estimated to have resulted in a drop of 60 per cent in the income of informal workers globally. This translates into a fall of 81 per cent in Africa and the Americas, 21.6 per cent in Asia and the Pacific, and 70 per cent in Europe and Central Asia.
Young persons, already facing higher rates of unemployment and underemployment, are more vulnerable to falling labour demand and losing their livelihoods. Older workers (55+) are also at risk from unemployment, underemployment and decreased working hours. Many are likely to lack social protection and women have more care responsibilities. Self-employed, casual and gig workers are vulnerable as they do not have access to paid or sick leave mechanisms and are less/not protected by conventional social protection mechanisms.”
Without alternative income sources, these workers and their families will have no means to survive.
Enterprises at risk
The proportion of workers living in countries where the government recommends or requires business closures has decreased from 81 to 68 per cent over the last two weeks. The decline from the previous estimate of 81 per cent in the second edition of the monitor (published April 7) is primarily a result of changes in China as elsewhere workplace closure measures have increased.
Worldwide, more than 436 million enterprises face high risks of serious disruption. These enterprises are operating in the hardest-hit economic sectors, including some 232 million in wholesale and retail, 111 million in manufacturing, 51 million in accommodation and food services, and 42 million in real estate and other business activities.
Urgent policy measures needed
The ILO calls for urgent, targeted, and flexible measures to support workers and businesses, particularly smaller enterprises, those in the informal economy and others who are vulnerable.
Measures for economic reactivation should follow a job-rich approach, backed by stronger employment policies and institutions, better-resourced and comprehensive social protection systems. International co-ordination on stimulus packages and debt relief measures will also be critical to making recovery effective and sustainable. International labour standards, which already enjoy tripartite consensus, can provide a framework.
“With the correct measures in place to protect workers, enterprises and employment, our economies and societies would recover better,” said Poutiainen.
“This is an opportunity to learn lessons and adjust our priorities: adequate social protection to protect the vulnerable; improved working conditions to safeguard workers in their workplaces; and strong social dialogue between government, employers and workers to find sustainable solutions to labour market issues.”
ILO-Director General Guy Ryder said, “As the pandemic and the jobs crisis evolve, the need to protect the most vulnerable becomes even more urgent.”
“For millions of workers, no income means no food, no security and no future. Millions of businesses around the world are barely breathing. They have no savings or access to credit. These are the real faces of the world of work. If we don’t help them now, they will simply perish”.